You Can’t Design for the Real 100-Year Flood

The 100-year flood, or for that matter, the 1000-year flood isn’t a real thing. 

It’s a set of statistical values used for engineering, insurance, and planning purposes. The engineers who design the burms, drainage, and pumps need a target. The actuaries need a target to price insurance policies. Community leaders need a target to put systems and policies in place. 

It’s a model, and nature doesn’t have to follow the model’s rules. 

Models are helpful for thinking through possibilities. For our business. For our retirement. For our health. 

But the real 100-year flood doesn’t know what year it is. It doesn’t know where it’s supposed to dump its water. It doesn’t know how much water. It doesn’t know which path it’s supposed to take. 

Plan all you want. And you should. But make room for chaos. Because it’s coming. 

The ones who thrive aren’t the ones whose model was better. They’re the ones who figured out how to float when the levee broke.