Each day from 1817 to 1825, across northern New York, 9000 men showed up with their shovels and lunch pails to dig the Erie Canal.
The 363-mile canal crossed New York State from the Hudson River to Lake Erie, spanning 40 feet wide and 4 feet deep with 83 locks. Thousands of laborers with picks, shovels, wheelbarrows, horses, and carts moved the dirt a little bit at a time.
Dug by hand. Men with shovels.
Some were better and faster than others, and that mattered for any specific work crew, but at the project level, a laborer was a laborer.
Need to move more dirt a little faster?
Hire more people with shovels.
But now we have excavators, dump trucks, and tunnel boring machines. What took 8 years could be done in about 18 months today with a few operators and a healthy fuel budget. And those operators bring their lunch pails right into the cabs with them.
Nobody hires a guy with a shovel anymore.
From the beginning of the software industry until today, the same has been true for writing code. Men and women showed up each day with their keyboards and lunch pails to type the code into the machine.
Like the big, strong guy on your work crew, some coders were much better than others, and that mattered for your specific project. But at a large scale, a coder was a coder.
But now we have AI. AI is the excavator, dump truck, and tunnel boring machine.
What took four programmers two weeks to code, test, and fix can now be done before lunch with a few agents and a healthy token budget. Now those coders can eat their lunch while the agents are building the things.
Start the soft music. Put the montage together. Stand the lectern up at the front of the room.
The programmer’s career is in the casket.