The Monty Hall problem.
You’ve got 3 doors to choose from.
One has a new car, the other 2, goats. So you pick one, but don’t open it yet. The host, who knows what’s behind each door, opens one of the 2 you didn’t pick, and it has a goat. Now you have 2 doors to choose from, the original one you picked and the other.
He then asks you if you’d like to switch your answer.
What do you do?
Most people look at it and say, “Well, 50/50, why would I change? It doesn’t matter.”
But its not 50/50. It’s 2/3 to 1/3. You should change. Every time.
If you do, you will win 66% of the time. I won’t explain it here, but you should look it up. I prefer the YouTube explanations. The answer includes probability, foreknowledge, and problem definition.
If you wanna be a gambler, stock trader, or even an NFL draft picker, you should get very clear on why it’s not 50/50.
Experts do their homework.
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