Daily one-pagers about AI, leadership, technology, and being human.

johnmaconline

I'm writing to think, learn, and remember in public. I'll be here everyday.

August 3, 2024 2 minute read

The AI Trust Calibration Factor

ChatGPT hallucinates. So do we humans.

“AI hallucination is a phenomenon wherein a large language model (LLM) perceives patterns or objects that are nonexistent or imperceptible to human observers, creating outputs that are nonsensical or altogether inaccurate.”

— IBM

And just like with other humans, we humans must figure out if we trust the output we’re getting.

How do we do that with other humans?

We apply our own trust calibration factor. We ask ourselves questions like:

“Do I trust this person?”
“How much do I trust this person?”
“Do I trust this person’s character/integrity/expertise/credentials?”
“Why should I trust this person?”

But it’s rarely a toggle switch of either “trust” or “do not trust.” It’s usually more of a spectrum. Unfortunately, we sometimes have to take action as if it’s a toggle switch, but we likely don’t feel that way. 

“I will (not) get the vaccine.”
“I will (not) have an abortion.”

When it comes to AI, we need to do the same thing. We need to apply some trust calibration factor. The good news is that some people are starting to apply some very smart logic to this problem.

It’s called “Thermometer,” and it helps AI avoid being overconfident about its own answers, which in turn helps us avoid being overconfident about its answers.

The fundamental problem, though, is the same as we humans have — do we trust ourselves to properly calibrate our trust factors?

August 2, 2024 1 minute read

Yup, That Sounds Like Me/Us

Ever have a moment where someone recounts something you did, assumes you would do something, or replays a dream in which you played a part?

Yes, of course, you have.

When you hear it, did you ever think or say, “Yup, that sounds like me.”

How did that make you feel? Happy? Embarrassed? Cringey? Empowered? Meh?

This tells you something about yourself and how you show up in the world. Do you like how you show up in the world?

As a leader, you can apply the same principle to your team, organization, or community. Observe how others describe what you did, or what they assume you’ll do, and how they perceived it. Listen, seek feedback, and ask yourself, “Does that sound like us?”

Whether you like or don’t like the answer, now you have an opportunity.

Don’t waste opportunities.

I

August 1, 2024 1 minute read

Rethink, Refresh, and Revise

I looked over something I had written years ago, and I was appalled.

The writing itself, of course (oh dear), but I give myself grace on that because that’s just experience. But the content, oh my. I just don’t believe it anymore. What was I thinking?

And then it hit me.

I was a different person at that time. Since then, I’ve seen different things, had different experiences, and lived more life. Of course, I don’t believe it anymore. Why would I?

That’s ok. In fact, it’s better than ok. Rethinking, refreshing, and revising one’s beliefs is not only natural, it’s growth.

Give yourself grace when you change your mind. And maybe, more importantly, give others grace when they change theirs. Both science and humanity require it.

July 31, 2024 1 minute read

The Player or the Team?

The Chicago White Sox did it first in 1960.

They were the first to add the player’s names to the back of the jerseys on their road uniforms. It was marketing aimed at enhancing player identification.

It worked, and it spread.

Today, only three pro teams do not display the player names — Yankees, Red Sox, and Giants. Somewhat ironically, they’re all baseball teams.

“We play for the logo on the front, not the name on the back.”

Who do you root for? Do you follow your favorite player from team to team, or are they dead to you once they don the enemy colors?

The magic happens when you don’t have to choose. “My favorite player plays for my favorite team.”

The same is true for brands, political parties, institutions, and systems.

Who do you root for, the player or the team?

July 30, 2024 2 minute read

The Gantry

Nobody talks about the gantry when they reminisce about the Saturn V and Apollo.

Except everyone who worked on the program.

The gantry — the red steel skeleton that stood watch next to the giant launch vehicle — was a critical piece of the mobile launch platform (MLP). The MLP allowed the rocket to be assembled vertically in the Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB) and then transported to the launch pad while maintaining its vertical orientation.

The seemingly innocuous curiosity of moving a 363′ rocket from assembly building to launch pad was one of the first program-level design decisions to be made because everything depended upon it.

It enabled the verticle assembly and transportation of the rocket, pre-launch activities and preparation, stability during pre-launch and launch, fueling and provided power. The disconnection of the gantry from the rocket happened at the very last millisecond it lifted off the ground. It was only at this moment that Saturn V became a fully autonomous system.

It wasn’t just a support structure; it was the backbone of the entire operation.

Don’t forget about the gantry. Who and what helped you? Who and what made it possible for you to become who you are? Who and what supported you until that very moment you launched?

Also, you can be or you can make the gantry for someone else. You can be an idea gantry. You can be an emotional gantry. You can make the system that enables the system.

July 29, 2024 1 minute read

Probably

You’ll probably fail.
You’ll probably make a fool of yourself.
You’ll probably end up back where you started.

But…

You’ll probably learn something.
You’ll probably gain confidence.
You’ll probably never regret it.

July 28, 2024 1 minute read

A Bug’s Life

Do you know the Pixar movie “A Bug’s Life?”

Possibly not, because it didn’t have nearly the success that its predecessor, “Toy Story” did. It’s been labeled less polished, less relatable, and just not as good.

I disagree, however. I’ve always liked the movie better than “Toy Story.”

Because I think about leadership, individuals, and systems all the time. And this movie is 100% about leadership, individuals, and systems. 

  • Flik, the leader: Innovation, courage, a willingness to be wrong, and an ability to create a followership.
  • The Circus Bugs: Each individual with their unique strengths adds up to a greater whole. 1 + 1 > 2
  • The Colony: You want real, lasting change? Change the system.

Whether you stand at the front or sit in the back row, maybe give A Bug’s Life a whirl.

July 27, 2024 1 minute read

Troublesome Proof

You think you have a good idea?

Prove it. Go find some (3? 10? 100?) others who agree. If they exist, then you might have a good idea.

What if you can’t find them? 

  1. Maybe you’re not looking in the right place.
  2. Maybe you’re not looking for the right people.
  3. Maybe you don’t recognize them. 
  4. Maybe they don’t recognize you.
  5. Maybe their clock and your clock aren’t synced 
  6. Maybe you don’t have a good idea

If you think you have a good idea, you should definitely work through 1 – 5. These are skills you can develop through action and thoughtfulness. It might take longer than you want or expect, but you can do it. 

The trouble with looking for proof is that you might just find it.

July 26, 2024 1 minute read

The Buffalo Approach?

Cows run away from the storm. Buffalos run toward it.

Or at least that’s how the myth goes and how the motivational speakers frame it. I’ve never tested it myself. I just don’t have any Buffalos. I do, however, watch the cows across the field, and they seem to generally follow this trend.

OK, so let’s just go with it, at least in spirit.

Today is a big day. You’re a bundle of nerves. How will it turn out?

One way to manage it is to try to forget about it. Distract yourself. Tell yourself it doesn’t matter. Run away. Another is to lean into it. Overprepare. Tell yourself it means everything. Run towards it.

Maybe there’s a third way. Maybe you shouldn’t run at all. Maybe you should sit and be present. Be prepared, but not with a script. Let the situation unfold. Be open. You might end up sopping wet. But you might end up cleansed and refreshed.

Maybe don’t be a buffalo or a cow. Maybe be a human.

July 25, 2024 2 minute read

Dishwasher-Lazy AI

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Are you dishwasher-lazy? If so, you probably don’t get what you want out of it.

Do you rinse/pre-wash your dishes before you put them in the dishwasher?

You may not want to. You may say things like, “what good is it if I have to?” You may decide to buy a [better/more expensive/commercial] dishwasher to give you the illusion that you don’t.

But you know it’s not true.

No matter what dishwasher you use, if you don’t rinse the dishes, some will come out dirty.

The dishwasher is a tool. It works remarkably well, if and only if you do the parts that you need to do. You’re still on the hook.

AI is the same.

AI is a tool. It works remarkably well, if and only if you do the parts that you need to. You’re still on the hook.

Here are some things you still need to do when you’re using AI:

  • You must ask good questions, including iterating on those questions
  • If you ask for information, you must check its work yourself
  • If you ask it to write a letter, response, or paragraph for you, you must edit it yourself
  • If you ask it to write code, you must test it yourself
  • If you ask it to find a good candidate from a stack of resumes, you must look through them yourself

Don’t be AI-lazy. You won’t get what you want out of it. 

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