Amara’s Law

“We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate its effect in the long run.”

The wording itself is a paraphrased amalgamation of ideas from Roy Amara, an American futurist and researcher during the 1960s and 70s.

The internet is a great example of this law.

The dot-com bust happened precisely because we hyped too much, too quick. We thought every company needed an internet business strategy immediately, even if that business model didn’t make sense for a particular company. The investment community insisted on an internet business model for any company it might invest in.

This was the 90s. Yes, the internet was starting to insert itself into culture and started affecting commerce, but it was too early for “all business” to be done over the internet. The world wasn’t quite ready. So the bubble burst.

But look at business today. The internet has lived up to those mid-90s predictions. All business, and much of life, needs an internet strategy. It just took longer than was predicted.

So will AI take over all knowledge work, like some are predicting? Will most human work be trade and labor? If so, how long will it really take?

It remains to be seen. I’m optimistic that it won’t, or if it does, humans and the system will have time to adjust as we did with the internet.

Here’s what I do believe, though: AI is here, and AI, whether quickly or slowly, will affect most knowledge work.

You’ve been warned.